Controlling Destiny: How to win tonight in ATX

Lock it up.

On the line tonight: Lonestar Showdown Trophy, Big 12 POY Award, Big 12 season championship, Big 12 Tournament #1 seed, and NCAA Tournament #2 Seed.

How to win:



Public Enemy #1
Some of you are confused, it's ok. Kevin Durant may be a god that can't legally buy a drink, but what he isn't is a one-man team. Every major Longhorn victory depends crucially on the supporting role that D.J. Augustin plays. Forget Durant, even if he scores 50, that won't be enough, we need to lock down Augustin.


Own the Tempo
Last month in College Station, the Longhorns pushed the game tempo at every opportunity, practically negating an injured Jones. While we did end up winning by 18 as we hit 100 pts, we played their style on our court. We can't let that happen again. If we're playing our style, neither team should break 75.


Boards
lots and lots of boards. With the size and experience we have in the paint, there is no excuse that an undersized Texas should even get half the rebounds of A&M. To be honest, A&M will NOT be able to stay out of foul trouble, thus we gotta compensate those free throws with increased boards, denying the longhorns 2nd chance points.


Lights Out
3-pt Shooting. It will be our safety net. If we have trouble controlling the tempo, if the crowd gets into the game, if for some reason we aren't getting the boards, the 3pt line will be our last line of defense (err..offense). Carter, Kirk, Law, hell even Jones. Basically, our whole starting 5 can and do hit that shot. Let's hope it doesn't come down to "The Shot: Part II".

prediction: Aggies 75-65

My pre-emptive response to the inevitable signs implying that Aggies for unlawful carnal knowledge livestock:

So does that make yall our bitches?

quick OU preview

it's 6:30 AM

i thought Kinko's was open 24 hours.. apparently the bastards like to sleep in til 7AM on saturdays. gotta run by there, print off the signs, then run by home depot. i am well prepared.

the OU defense will be the best defense the Aggies face all year, but there is nothing that can prepare any defense for the absurd multiplicity of this offense. If the Ags can maintain their current trend of NOT turning the ball over, they should win this one.

Also, many are overlooking one of the biggest factors of the game, the 12thMan (lame? yes. true? yes.) As fellow Aggie blogger, Ryan, pointed out in his thorough preview, OU is 2-4 at Kyle with the 2 wins being decided in the final minutes.

Set your DVRs for stun.




additional signs:

Baylor Preview

Oct. 28, 2006
Floyd Casey Stadium (Kyle Field - North)
6:00 pm

i could go through and compare the offensive and defensive matchups of both teams, but it won't matter. as much as it pains me to say it, there is always something unique about this game ever since they ambushed us in Waco 2 years ago.

It was an eerily similar situation in 2004. A&M was a Top 20 team on the rise in the polls, talk of GameDay coming to town for the OU game was rampant, and lowly Baylor, a team that was winless against A&M in the previous two decades, was praying to reach a respectable .500 season.



I remember sitting in a hotel room in tiny Kilgore, TX (was visiting some Rangerette friends), on the phone with some friends (from UT of all schools at that moment) who burst in uncontrolled laughter as they informed me live that Baylor was going for 2 in OT...and made it. forever shaming us..

in 2005, when fans were promising a schlacking of +70pts reminiscent of 2003, much to our horro, Baylor owned the lead and we had to come back to tie the game to put it in OT, eventually winning.

Despite the past two years, if Baylor is to have a chance this saturday, it will depend on these two guys' ability to shred our still vulnerable secondary.

Shawn Bell


and Dominique Ziegler

Mizzou Preview

With so much negative press the past few years, it's refreshing to finally see the good things someone can accomplish with the help of steroids. Not only was QB Chase Daniel able to lead his HS team (SL Carroll) to a couple of state championships, he's now lead Mizzou to it's best start in decades.

reason to be very afraid:

• the mizzou defense
  this defense, ranked 10th against the run and 11th overall, absolutely obliterated the Texas Tech offense last week. Coming out of halftime, with the momentum completely in Tech's favor, Mizzou pulled what can only be described as a Morpheus with a sword vs. Escalade Truck (see Matrix: Reloaded), deflating and destroying any chances for a Tech comeback.


• inconsistency from A&M:
  the term "a 2nd Half team" would be an understatement. Sometimes i wonder if the maroon team on the field is merely a huge optical illusion meant to give Fran and the team more time to rest in the locker room and feast on their favorite snacks. If the Aggies want a chance at beating this team, they gotta show up and stop giving away the first half.


• Balance:
  Mizzou averages 179yds rushing and 245yds passing per game....f*ck.

reason for hope:

• Michael Bennett and Chris Harrington
  if these two guys can play like they did against KU last week (like they should), putting constant pressure on Daniel and limiting the run game, the Ags will have a chance.


• Stephen McGee
  this guy is a straight up leader. he will find a way to win.


• Mizzou overinflated
  if you thought A&M's pre-conference schedule was easy, take a look at Mizzou's. The only non-terrible team that Missouri has played was Texas Tech, and thanks to Tech's 5 tunovers, the Tigers never even had to struggle. To summarize, Mizzou hasn't played a close game all season, and when they find themselves in a dogfight Saturday, it's hard to say how they'll actually play.

If Fran comes out and decides to go straight for the jugular instead of his usual strategy of playing not-to-lose until 5:00 left in the 4th, then A&M will have a fighting chance.

Preview: @ Kansas

Kansas

until last week, my only worry about the Kansas game was the drive there and Fran's terrible record when it comes to the first road (real road game, Army was a "road" game with a home crowd) game of the year (0-4). Then, backup QB Adam Barrman took the Jayhawks to the brink of upsetting Nebraska..in Lincoln, throwing for over 400 yds. If memory serves correctly, Barrman was the QB that stepped in half-way through a run away aggie victory at Kyle in 2003 and made the game much more interesting than it should've been.



The question for Saturday's game between the Aggies and Jayhawks is NOT "will Meier or Barrman be the starter?" rather, it will be "which Barrman will show up to the game, the one that almost beat Nebraska or the one that has been plagued with inconsistency and a severe case of the choke's (the Barrman of 2003-last week)?"

Assuming Barrman's performance in Nebraska was not a fluke, but rather a sign of long overdue maturity, his aerial attack combined with a tenacious and adaptive defense should give the Ags fits.

Yet, will the recent improvement in Kansas' play be enough to stop the Ags' offensive prowess? Not likely, the 2006 LB corps is still a shadow of its former self, look for the J-Train to make multiple stops in the end zone.

This one looks to be a shootout, the team with the defense giving up the fewest big plays and the offense that turns the ball over least will walk away with the victory.




"[A&M's]..first road game of the season at a venue that is tough as nails on the visiting team."
- PhogBlog.com


..rock-chalk this.

Texas Tech @ Texas A&M: Preview

it's that time of year again. the weather is back down to lower 90s. and you can hear fish and their "spurs" coming from miles away.

The game is looking to be one of the best of the weekend, and quite honestly, the hardest to pick/bet on.

Advantages:

Texas A&M -

• Multiple Offense
  the Ags bring a multiple, well balanced offensive attack, making it very difficult for defenses to prepare. Ball control is a huge key to shutting down a no-huddle spread pass attack like Tech's, the Ags highly ranked rushing offense should prove invaluable.


• Kyle Field
  this weekend's game will be the first capacity game of the season. There is nothing like the directed (literally) energy and voice of the 12th Man, Harrell and the no-huddle offense will find it difficult to change plays at the line and linemen will certainly be making mistakes.


• Stephen McGee
  
  the guy is the second coming of Bucky Richardson Christ.

Texas Tech -

• the Pass
  the Red Raiders average 336 yds passing per game. attempting just under 200 passes, with only 2 INTs on the season. Although the A&M defense's stats against the pass are impressive, they have yet to face a passing blitzkrieg the likes of Texas Tech.

Draw:

• Mental Toughness
  Both teams have found themselves in dogfights going down to the wire (Texas A&M vs Army, Tech @ UTEP), but both teams knew how to pull together and get the win.


• Special Teams
  although A&M's punting has been very impressive at times, both A&M's and Tech's special teams have proven to be woefully inconsistent. The outcome of Saturday's game, like most games, will depend heavily on field position and turnover margin. Special teams are traditionaly responsible for both helping and hurting these two factors.

Prediction:
The game will be close, A&M will devour clock running the triple option 30 times in a row, Tech will survive most of the game on big plays given up by the Aggie secondary. We will see a replay of 2004's thrilling OT victory, Ags Win.



As much as i hate the prospect of this game being moved to Dallas like a lame step-child of the Red River Rivalry SHOOTOUT, I have no problem admitting that Texas Tech is a rival of A&M's. Big XII Rivalries are kind of like a really bad soap opera love triangle. Baylor & Tech want A&M to be their main rival, A&M wishes Texas would look at it like they used to, and Texas & OU are currently having a cross border affair.

With that said, here's some rivalries stuff i never get tired of laughing at.



gets better with age


i can laugh at this one for hours. gah, don't fuck with ol'army ags.


"gooo raaaaaaiiiders!"

Big XII Preview - Two Minute Drill: the North

because of a natural aversion to writing, researching, and pretty much any kind of deadline,i've been forced to squeeze an off-season's worth of analysis and prediction into two posts.

the Big XII North, in no particular order...




Nebraska

Since the heralded arrival of Bill Callahan and his new fangled west-coast offense, Nebraska fans have been wandering in the desert, surviving on mana (a.k.a - the North as of late), waiting for Callahan to return them to the BCS promised land. Yet, there is hope, and it comes in the form of a rugged senior quarterback named Zac Taylor.

Taylor, sacked a staggering 38 times in 2005 (Nebraska was 105th in sacks allowed), remained calm and unwaivering as he dropped back to pass throughout the season. His leadership in the double-OT victory over Iowa State as well as in the Huskers victory over Michigan in the Alamo Bowl was inspiring. It is his ability to lead his teammates coupled with a toughness rarely found in the QB position that leads the state of Nebraska (as well as ESPN) to revere him as their probable football savior.



Unfortunately, it will take more than the spirited leadership of a senior quarterback to lead the Husker nation through their brutal guantlet of a schedule to salvation, and talented support on the offensive side of the ball will be lacking. The Huskers lose their starting tailback from their 107th ranked rushing offense, in addition to only returning C Kurt Mann from the offensive line that allowed 82 tackles for loss (-342 yds) in 2005. Although Taylor will have quality passing targets in So WR Nate Swift and Jr WR Terrence Nunn, without a significant running threat to defend against, opposing defenses will only need to drop back into coverage to negate Taylor's aerial threat.

The blackshirts should have less to worry about than the offense. With a healthy and deep LB corps, as well as an experienced Secondary returning, the only unknown is whether or not the interior line can reload. Expect the blackshirts to reload with no problem, and to carry this team in 2006.

projected # of wins: 7

---

Colorado

the Buffs are entering uncharted territory with new head coach Dan Hawkins. Expectations for Hawkins' first season are, naturally, not very high. Returning talent and difficulty(ease) of schedule are critical factors for success in a rebuilding/transition season such as this, and the Buffs won't be receiving much help in either category.

The offense returns 3 experienced upperclassmen to anchor the OL, as well as Jr RB Hugh Charles. Yet, the combination of an untested QB and an untested receiving corps could prove disastrous. Oh, and let's not forget the inevitable confusion and miscues that come with the first season of a brand new offensive scheme.



The Colorado defense, which ranked 11th(NCAA) against the run last season returns a solid nucleus of LBs in Jr Jordon Dizon and Sr Thaddaeus Washington. The secondary, on the other hand, is much more suspect. With the pass-heavy teams on CU's schedule (Arizona State, Missouri, Baylor, Texas Tech, and Iowa State) the Buffs could find themselves in dire straits.

projected # of wins: 4

---

Missouri

The 7-5 (4-4) Mizzou team that overcame a 21-pt lead to win the Independence Bowl last season was young and relatively inexperienced. In 2006, the Tigers return 8 starters on Offense and 7 on Defense...(it's ok, I had to re-read it and pick up my jaw too). Is there anything that could prevent these now fully grown Tigers from romping in the Big XII North?

Yes. Although the offense returns 8, including 4 Linemen, there will be one glaring void: Brad Smith. With Brad Smith gone, so is Mizzou's explosive running game. Defenses will no longer need to spy the QB, alleviating past coverage problems when faced with Mizzou's very talented receiving corps and pair of TE's.



The defense returns almost its entire interior unit with the exception of WLB. Although the secondary will be breaking in new talent, look for the experienced D-Line and LBs to compensate with increased pressure on opposing QBs.

If the preceding potential weaknesses can be adressed early, Mizzou could very well find itself in Kansas City on Dec. 2 playing for the Big XII Championship.

projected # of wins: 8

---

Kansas State

Will the demise of the Bill Snyder era signal the demise of the Kansas State program? It all depends on whether the Prince turns out to be a Machiavelli, or an Artist Formerly Known As.



Coach Prince has brought with him a healthy dose of NFL level coaching and playbook. The new offensive coordinator, fresh from Green Bay, is expected to institute a hefty portion of West Coast. The new DC, from Tampa Bay, is bringing with him the Bucs' vaunted Cover 2. The question is, not only will there be enough time for the players to learn and perfect their execution of the new schemes, but will the new systems even be able to compensate for the pitiful performance of 2005. The Wildcat's favorable schedule says...it's possible. 6 of their first 7 games are played home, giving K-State plenty of time to adopt the new systems and develop the necessary confidence before facing division foes: Nebraska, Missouri, and Iowa State.

projected # of wins: 4

---

Iowa State

With Vince Young, Brad Smith, and Reggie McNeal gone, the Big XII quarterback on everyone's lips will be Jr Brett Meyer. With 9 starters returning on offense, expect Meyer and the Cyclone offense to retain their status as one of the top offenses in the conference.



Although the defensive line lost two all-conference players, the defense as a whole will continue to dominate, especially in of the most obscure, yet critical statistical categories: Turnovers Gained. In 2005, the Cyclones led the conference with 35 turnovers gained, 22 of which were INTs(!!).

Unfortunately, the Schedule Gods have not smiled on Iowa State this year. The Cyclones face a brutal schedule this season: @ Iowa, @ Texas, @ Oklahoma, Texas Tech. If the Cyclones can stay healthy, only Nebraska and Missouri stand in between them and a date with Arrowhead Stadium in december.

predicted # of wins: 8

---

Kansas

"3 and Out" was often the theme for the Jayhawks last season, on both Defense AND Offense. So far, the theme for 2006 seems to be "role reversal". This year, it'll be KU's defense that will be the weak link. The Jayhawks only return 3 starters on defense; DT James McClinton, CB Aqib Talib, SS Jerome Kemp. The defense will have to quickly compensate for a lack of experience if they want to retain their rank as #1 against the run in the Big XII again this year.

The Jayhawks return 7 on offense, 4 of which are offensive lineman. Lead by Outland Trophy watch list-er, Sr David Ochoa, the line should prove to be an experienced and consistent base for coach Mark Mangino to build the offense upon. Under center this season will be the 6'3" 210lb redshirt freshman, Kerry Meier. In the Spring game, Meier proved himself to be a talented passer and explosive athlete out the pocket. The combination of a consistent QB in Meier, and an experienced offensive line should prove to be a potent one for Sr RB Jon Cornish. If he can stay healthy, look for Cornish to flirt with 1,000 yds this season. The only question mark for the Jayhawk offense is the lack of experience and depth in the receiving corps.



Their schedule is a little bit of good news and a little bit of bad. The absence of such South powers as Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas Tech will provide a significant boost to the season. Yet, the Jayhawks will face a rather rough road schedule with Toledo, Nebraska, and Iowa State all on the road.

predicted # of wins: 6





Two Minute Drill: the South, coming tomorrow